Your Information

Results are estimates only — consult your healthcare provider before making medical decisions.

3-Month Prediction
206.6 lbs
-13.4 lbs (6.1%)
6-Month Prediction
198.7 lbs
-21.3 lbs (9.7%)
12-Month Prediction
191.1 lbs
-28.9 lbs (13.1%)

BMI Change

Starting BMI33.5Obese I
12-Month BMI29.1Overweight

Detailed Progress Table

MonthDateWeightBMITotal Lost% Lost
StartMar 2026220 lbs33.5
1Apr 2026214.7 lbs32.7-5.3 lbs2.4%
2May 2026210.3 lbs32-9.7 lbs4.4%
3Jun 2026206.6 lbs31.4-13.4 lbs6.1%
6Sep 2026198.7 lbs30.2-21.3 lbs9.7%
9Dec 2026193.9 lbs29.5-26.1 lbs11.8%
12Mar 2027191.1 lbs29.1-28.9 lbs13.1%

How This Calculator Works

This calculator uses a logarithmic prediction model based on published clinical trial results. Weight loss with GLP-1 medications is typically faster in the early months and gradually plateaus over time.

  • Ozempic ~15%: Based on STEP-1 trial data (semaglutide 2.4mg). Actual results with Ozempic (max 2.0mg) may vary.
  • Mounjaro / Zepbound (tirzepatide): Average ~22.5% body weight loss over 72 weeks (SURMOUNT-1 trial)
  • Diet & exercise only: Estimated ~5% with consistent effort

Individual results vary significantly based on diet, exercise, dosage titration, adherence, and other factors.

How We Predict Your Weight Loss: The Clinical Model

This GLP-1 weight loss calculator uses a logarithmic decay model based on published clinical trial data. Weight loss with GLP-1 medications follows a characteristic curve: rapid reduction in the first 3–6 months that gradually plateaus as the body reaches a new metabolic set point.

The model formula is: Weight(week) = StartWeight × (1 − MaxLoss% × (1 − e−rate × week)). This exponential saturation function closely matches observed trial outcomes and is more accurate than simple linear projections.

Clinical Trial Data: By Medication

MedicationTrialDurationAvg Weight LossTop Dose Responders
Ozempic (semaglutide 2.0mg)STEP-1 (2021)68 weeks~14.9%Up to 20%+ in some patients
Wegovy (semaglutide 2.4mg)STEP-1 (2021)68 weeks~15.3%~1 in 3 lost 20%+
Mounjaro (tirzepatide 15mg)SURMOUNT-1 (2022)72 weeks~22.5%~57% lost 20%+
Zepbound (tirzepatide 15mg)SURMOUNT-1 (2022)72 weeks~22.5%~57% lost 20%+

Note: Ozempic's max approved dose is 2.0mg. STEP-1 used 2.4mg (Wegovy dose). Results with Ozempic may be slightly lower than the trial average shown. All figures represent averages; individual results vary significantly.

Why Mounjaro Outperforms Ozempic

Ozempic and Wegovy target only the GLP-1 receptor. Mounjaro and Zepbound (tirzepatide) are dual GIP/GLP-1 receptor agonists — they activate both the glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide (GIP) receptor and the GLP-1 receptor simultaneously. This dual action produces significantly stronger appetite suppression, better glycemic control, and greater total weight loss in head-to-head comparisons.

A 2023 NEJM study (SURMOUNT-4) demonstrated that participants continuing tirzepatide maintained their weight loss, while those switched to placebo regained ~14% of body weight within 52 weeks — confirming the importance of long-term treatment continuity.

Factors That Affect Your Individual Results

Clinical trial averages include a wide range of responders. The following factors can significantly influence how much weight you lose on GLP-1 medications:

  • Starting BMI: People with higher starting BMI tend to lose more absolute pounds but similar percentages. Those with BMI 35+ often see the strongest responses.
  • Dosage titration: Patients who reach the maximum dose (2.0mg for Ozempic, 15mg for Mounjaro) generally achieve better outcomes. Some cannot tolerate higher doses due to GI side effects.
  • Diet quality: GLP-1 medications suppress appetite but don't change food choices. Users who follow a high-protein, lower-carb diet tend to preserve more muscle and lose more fat.
  • Exercise (especially resistance training): Adding strength training 2–3x per week significantly improves the fat-to-muscle loss ratio, improving body composition even at the same scale weight.
  • Medication adherence: Missed doses reduce efficacy. Weekly injections require consistent scheduling.
  • Metabolic factors: Insulin resistance, sleep quality, stress levels, and gut microbiome composition all modulate response.
  • Age and sex: Older adults and women on average lose slightly less weight in trials, though absolute benefits remain significant.
  • Concomitant medications: Certain antidepressants (SSRIs), corticosteroids, and antipsychotics can blunt weight loss response.

What to Expect Month by Month

GLP-1 weight loss is not linear. Most users experience:

  • Month 1–2: Modest loss of 3–7 lbs as the body adjusts. GI side effects (nausea) are most common in this phase.
  • Month 3–6: The fastest rate of loss. Most users lose 5–10% of body weight in this window as they reach therapeutic dosing.
  • Month 6–12: Loss continues but slows as the body adapts. Emphasis shifts to sustaining the deficit through diet and exercise.
  • Month 12+: Many users reach a new plateau. Some require dose adjustments or transition to maintenance strategies.
Medical Disclaimer: The information provided by GLP1Tools is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended as a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis, or treatment. Always seek the advice of your physician or other qualified health provider with any questions you may have regarding a medical condition or medication. Never disregard professional medical advice or delay in seeking it because of something you have read on this website.